Dr Tim Hall 22 MINUTES AGO
Harvey’s destruction will take months to tabulate. Some current numbers: 46 confirmed dead, 10,000s in shelters, many more without power or drinking water, standing floodwater water contaminated by sewage and industrial leakage, explosions at petrochemical plants, $8B-$12B in insured residential losses mostly flood (CoreLogic), $15B-$25B more in uninsured residential losses, and unknown multiples of that in total economic damage.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Irma is strengthening in central sub-tropical Atlantic and is forecast for Cat 4 intensity. Too early for any skill, but a significant fraction of ECMWF’s 15-day ensemble forecast have Irma making US landfall.

EditDelete
editor 2 DAYS AGO
CoreLogic a leading global
property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today announced preliminary residential loss estimates for Hurricane Harvey. According to the data analysis, insured flood loss for homes in the 70-county area in Texas and Louisiana affected by the storm is estimated to be between $6.5 billion and $9.5 billion, which includes inland, flash and storm surge flooding. An additional estimated $1 billion to $2 billion in insured loss is attributed to damage from wind. Residential uninsured flood loss for the same area is estimated to be between $18 billion and $27 billion. As a result, an estimated 70 percent of flood damage from Hurricane Harvey is not covered by any insurance.

Data Highlights:

· Insured flood
loss covered by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is estimated at $6
billion to $9 billion.

o
This includes inland, flash and storm surge
flooding.

o
More than 98 percent of residential flood
insurance in the U.S. is provided through the NFIP.

· Insured
flood loss from private insurers is estimated at less than $0.5 billion.

· Uninsured
flood loss, which represents damage from storm surge and inland flooding not
covered by any insurance policies, is estimated at $18 billion to $27 billion.

· Insured
loss from wind damage is estimated at $1 billion to $2 billion.

Loss Estimates from Hurricane Harvey

CoreLogic Analysis

Flood Loss

Total Flood Loss

$25-37 B

Insured by NFIP

$6-9 B

Estimated Percent

Uninsured

70%

Insured by Private Insurers

<$0.5 B Uninsured $18-27 B Total Insured Flood Loss $6.5-9.5 B Total Uninsured Flood Loss $18-27 B Total Insured Loss Including Flood and Wind $7.5-11.5 Insured loss represents the amount insurers will pay to cover damage and loss. This analysis includes residential homes, including contents, and does not include commercial, loss of business or other broader economic loss from the storm. EditDelete Dr Tim Hall 4 DAYS AGO Harvey is now one of the worst flood catastrophes in US history. After a record-setting 72 hours over land as a tropical storm, Harvey currently sits off the southeast Texas coast ready to make a third landfall overnight near the Texas-Louisiana boarder. The NHC reports that Harvey has set the US record for total rainfall for a single tropical cyclone; at 3pm the Cedar Bayou station reported 52 inches four-day total, and other stations nearby are above 48 inches. Reservoirs have reached capacity, and a levee 40 miles southwest of Houston has been breached, forcing evacuations. The Houston Convention Center is reaching its limit, with 9000 people camped there, long lines of evacuees waiting to enter and 1000s stranded. Heavy rains will continue intermittently for several more days over southwest Texas and Louisiana before Harvey moves north and inland. Houston has now seen the bulk of its rain total, but rivers and tributaries continue to crest, and dams barely holding on will almost certainly be breached, either purposely by the Army Corps of Engineers, or otherwise. EditDelete Dr Tim Hall 5 DAYS AGO Wind speed does not begin to describe the horrors of this hurricane. Harvey is essentially a giant pump parked on the Texas coast extracting water from the Gulf and dumping it on Houston. The rainfall is astonishing and record breaking; 30+ inches in parts of Houston and 10+ inches more to come. Harvey’s total rainfall on the Houston area will be roughly 1% of the entire annual rainfall on the US. The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang worked out some mind-bending volume equivalents for the 9 trillion gallons of rain to date: a cube of water two miles on a side; nine days of the Mississippi’s flow; the city limits of New Orleans at the bottom of a 128-foot lake. Yes, water drains. But it’s had a hard time with that, because the coastal storm surge blocked inland drainage routes, highlighting the damaging interaction between coastal surge and inland rain. And when the inland water does drain, it’s doing it through Houston and environs. Whatever the insured losses due to the 130 mph winds and the 2-6 ft of surge on coastal Texas (AIR and RMS early estimates range from $1 billion to $6 billion), they pale in comparison to the rain-driven flooding. Insured flood losses will be much higher (JPMorgan estimates $10B-$20B). And the total economic damage will be much higher still, since only 15-20% of properties in affected areas have flood insurance. Dr Hall is a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. He specialises in hurricanes and their relationship to climate. He develops statistical hurricane and weather hazard models, and has worked as a consultant to RMS and reinsurance companies. Dr Hall can be reached at http://www.linkedin.com/pub/timothy-hall/a2/709/b27/. EditDelete editor 5 DAYS AGO The latest posts from the modelling companies: AIR RMS EditDelete editor 5 DAYS AGO Wind speed does not begin to describe the horrors of this hurricane. Harvey is essentially a giant pump parked on the Texas coast extracting water from the Gulf and dumping it on Houston. The rainfall is astonishing and record breaking; 30+ inches in parts of Houston and 10+ inches more to come. Harvey’s total rainfall on the Houston area will be roughly 1% of the entire annual rainfall on the US. The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang worked out some mind-bending volume equivalents for the 9 trillion gallons of rain to date: a cube of water two miles on a side; nine days of the Mississippi’s flow; the city limits of New Orleans at the bottom of a 128-foot lake. Yes, water drains. But it’s had a hard time with that, because the coastal storm surge blocked inland drainage routes, highlighting the damaging interaction between coastal surge and inland rain. And when the inland water does drain, it’s doing it through Houston and environs. Whatever the insured losses due to the 130 mph winds and the 2-6 ft of surge on coastal Texas (AIR and RMS early estimates range from $1 billion to $6 billion), they pale in comparison to the rain-driven flooding. Insured flood losses will be much higher (JPMorgan estimates $10B-$20B). And the total economic damage will be much higher still, since only 15-20% of properties in affected areas have flood insurance. Dr Hall is a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. He specialises in hurricanes and their relationship to climate. He develops statistical hurricane and weather hazard models, and has worked as a consultant to RMS and reinsurance companies. Dr Hall can be reached at http://www.linkedin.com/pub/timothy-hall/a2/709/b27/. editor 5 DAYS AGO The 12-year-long US major hurricane drought is over with the Texas Category-4 landfall of Hurricane Harvey. But wind speed does not begin to describe the horrors of this hurricane. Harvey is essentially a giant pump parked on the Texas coast extracting water from the Gulf and dumping it on Houston. The rainfall is astonishing and record breaking; 30+ inches in parts of Houston and 10+ inches more to come. Harvey’s total rainfall on the Houston area will be roughly 1% of the entire annual rainfall on the US. The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang worked out some mind-bending volume equivalents for the 9 trillion gallons of rain to date: a cube of water two miles on a side; nine days of the Mississippi’s flow; the city limits of New Orleans at the bottom of a 128-foot lake. Yes, water drains. But it’s had a hard time with that, because the coastal storm surge blocked inland drainage routes, highlighting the damaging interaction between coastal surge and inland rain. And when the inland water does drain, it’s doing it through Houston and environs. Whatever the insured losses due to the 130 mph winds and the 2-6 ft of surge on coastal Texas (AIR and RMS early estimates range from $1 billion to $6 billion), they pale in comparison to the rain-driven flooding. Insured flood losses will be much higher (JPMorgan estimates $10B-$20B). And the total economic damage will be much higher still, since only 15-20% of properties in affected areas have flood insurance. Dr Hall is a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. He specialises in hurricanes and their relationship to climate. He develops statistical hurricane and weather hazard models, and has worked as a consultant to RMS and reinsurance companies. Dr Hall can be reached at http://www.linkedin.com/pub/timothy-hall/a2/709/b27/. Posted: Monday, August 28th, 2017

Posted: Monday, September 4th, 2017