Category: Risk

Known unknowns

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What premium should the owners of the Empire State Building pay for terrorism insurance in 2017? Insurers and reinsurers often need to quantify the risk of events occurring where there is no relevant data to analyse or where the risk...

Hurricane Matthew (and Nicole) – Live Blog

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InsuranceLinked and NASA's Tim Hall are following the latest developments of Hurricane Matthew. Over the next few days, we will be posting on the latest meteorological forecasts and the likely market impact. ...

What comes next? Mid Season Hurricane Update

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NASA’s Dr Tim Hall gives his prognosis for the rest of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season and asks whether the frequency of hurricanes at the end of the season is affected by how things started. Hurricane Hermine made landfall...

Under pressure – MultiCat Mexico C

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When the National Hurricane Center publishes its 2015 end of season report, the contents will be more than academic for ILS investors. The $100m MultiCat Mexico C could face a total default based on the published central pressure measurements...

2015 hurricane update with NASA’s Dr Tim Hall

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As the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes builds to a peak on September 10, forecasts for the remainder of the year become increasingly skilful. InsuranceLinked's resident meteorologist has used the latest observations to calculate that 2015...

2015 could be another quiet year for hurricanes

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In the two years 2004/2005 the US experienced seven 'major' hurricanes. There have been zero in the nine years since then. Early signs indicate that 2015 will be another relatively quiet year. NASA’s Dr. Tim Hall discusses the upcoming...

Too many terrorists spoil the plot

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As spies have become more sophisticated, terrorists have had to find new ways to terrorise people. The public has been surprised to discover the extent to which they are spied on by their own governments. But according to Dr Gordon...

The fundamental interconnectedness of things

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On Saturday, global leaders flew home from the World Economic Forum at Davos where they were debating the big issues of 2015. The increasing interconnectedness of global risks was high on their agenda The graphic below shows the...

A tale of two storms

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Bermuda was hammered by two tropical cyclones in less than a week, Fay and Gonzalo. But hitting Bermuda was one of the few things the storms had in common. Fay was a “messy” storm: gusty, broad, asymmetric, and not well forecast....

Bermuda – in the firing line (NASA’s Dr Tim Hall)

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Bermuda is a small target, but Atlantic hurricanes like to take shots at it, and Hurricane Gonzalo has good aim. Updated midday, October 15th 2014 Gonzalo, the sixth hurricane of the 2014 season, is currently a major hurricane (Saffir...

Seasonal hurricane forecast map with NASA’s Dr Tim Hall

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The 2014 hurricane season continues to be well below long-term average by many measures. We are now about a week past the climatological peak in hurricane formation, and so far we’ve had 5 named storms, one major hurricane (Edouard), and no US...

2014 hurricane update with NASA’s Dr Tim Hall

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It has been a quiet year for Atlantic hurricanes, and it is increasingly likely to stay that way. In the first of a series of columns, Dr Tim Hall from NASA forecasts reduced odds for US hurricane landfalls during the remainder of the season. There...

Shake up in the science of earthquakes

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The cat bond and reinsurance markets are likely to be affected by a new study by the US Geological Survey. It concludes that there is a higher risk of earthquakes in many parts of the US than was previously thought. For the sixth...

Reading tea leaves

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Seasonal forecasters have offered few useful insights to the reinsurance market, but cat bond traders could use them to gain an edge Hurricanes in the Atlantic are the cause of the world’s largest risk to insured property. Every...

Untangling twisters

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New insight into tornado risk could give investors the comfort they need In 2010, American Family’s, Mariah Re, became the first catastrophe bond to cover losses from tornadoes in the US. It was a significant development in broadening...

Known unknowns

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A new generation of catastrophe models is set to transform our understanding of the uncertainty inherent in risk analysis All catastrophe models are wrong in that they are unable to provide accurate estimates of the probability of...

What’s the damage?

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Despite the headlines, 2013 was a respite year for the reinsurance industry Recent analyses by a number of industry insiders have examined how last year, the reinsurance industry experienced one of the most benign loss years on record...

The heat is on

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Concern about global warming is fuelling greater interest in ILS A landmark report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last year concluded there is unequivocal evidence that human actions are responsible for global...

When the wind blows

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Calm in the Atlantic but Europe takes a buffeting Despite predictions of a stormy Atlantic hurricane season, 2013 was an extremely benign year - the least active in the last 30 years in fact. Just 13 named storms formed during the...

Broadening scope for cat bonds

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Storm surge development a step forward in innovation While the majority of cat bonds continue to cover peak risk in the US, and to a lesser extent Europe and Japan, a spate of recent issuances have included a new set of perils, in...