Monte Carlo 2017 – live blog




The leaders of the global reinsurance industry spend months each year preparing for September's conference in Monte Carlo. But this year's presentations have had to be rewritten over the weekend as it became clear that the implications of Harvey and Irma would be dominating the agenda. This blog takes over from the Harvey and Irma live blog and will continue to follow how the industry responds to events in the Atlantic.

editor Sep 15th, 20178:45 AM

Chart from Lloyd’s.

editor Sep 13th, 20173:31 PM

From Karen Clark & Company

editor Sep 13th, 20172:00 PM

AM Best have summarised the cat bonds that are exposed in Florida.

editor Sep 13th, 20171:18 AM

Estimates of economic losses from Moody’s Analytics. Note that Harvey now looks worse than Irma.

editor Sep 12th, 20172:35 PM

Dirk Lohmann, CEO, Secquaero commented on the potential for trapped capital:

Irma will probably have some impact on pricing but we’re not talking about a sea change. If it had hit Miami as it was forecast to do on Friday and come near the $100bn mark it would have had a much more pronounced impact on pricing.

It will have an impact on retrocession because a large proportion of that is in the ILS market. You’re going to see a lot of collateral that’s going to be trapped through the buffer clauses, you had those loadings. Even if you didn’t impair the upper end of the program you may have collateral tied up. So in order to renew you need to raise fresh money.

editor Sep 12th, 201711:56 AM

Irma’s cumulative wind field footprint from the RMS blog. The highest winds were limited to the Keys and the south western tip of the state.

editor Sep 12th, 201711:48 AM

The share price of publicly traded, Florida focused insurers has recovered.

editor Sep 12th, 201711:08 AM

Pepper the Scor lounge robot…

editor Sep 11th, 20176:09 PM

NASA’s Dr Tim Hall has run some numbers to show just how unusual it is to experience two cat 4+ hurricanes making landfall in the US within 15 days in this article for InsuranceLinked: 2017 hurricane odds

editor Sep 11th, 20175:56 PM

Guy Carpenter’ Des Potter, Head of GC Securities, EMEA commented on London’s new ILS framework:

“London’s ILS framework will be vital in enhancing the City’s standing in the global reinsurance market. The big challenge is whether the U.K. regulator can provide the speed and certainty required to enable the U.K. to compete effectively with other ILS jurisdictions. The U.K. has a strong global reputation, but as the ILS market evolves, the regulator will need to be far more responsive than it is today,” Potter warns.

“After the next major property catastrophe loss event, reinsurers will almost certainly turn to the ILS market for recapitalisation. Right now, London’s infrastructure is not efficient enough to allow capital to be deployed quickly or cost effectively,” he explains.

He adds, “If there were another Katrina tomorrow, it would take the U.K. many months to approve plans for capital to flow in, in which time Bermuda would have raised billions. London’s market share could drop materially within a few weeks of such an event.”

editor Sep 11th, 20175:43 PM

The recent U.S. hurricanes are more likely to be earnings events than capital events, according to reinsurance industry experts in a report published today by S&P Global Ratings

editor Sep 11th, 20175:41 PM

AccuWeather predicts economic cost of Harvey, Irma to be $290 billion
AccuWeather Global Headquarters – September 10, 2017 – AccuWeather reports aIt has been a destructive and costly hurricane season, following the historic impacts from Hurricane Harvey and now Hurricane Irma.
This is the first time in the history of record keeping that two Category 4 or higher hurricanes, Harvey and Irma, have struck the U.S. mainland in the same year.
“That is extraordinary by itself,” Dr. Joel N. Myers, AccuWeather founder, president and chairman, said.
“And also unprecedented is that this particular storm, Irma, has sustained intensity for the longest period of time of any hurricane or typhoon in any ocean of the world since the satellite era began,” Myers said.

editor Sep 10th, 20179:02 PM

According to S&P, equity valuations have been rising despite falling returns.

editor Sep 10th, 20178:55 PM
AIR Worldwide Estimates Combined Insured Losses for Hurricane Irma for the United States and Selected Islands in the Caribbean Will Be Between USD 20 Billion and USD 65 Billion
BOSTON, Sept. 9, 2017 — Catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide estimates combined insured losses for Hurricane Irma for the United States and selected islands in the Caribbean will be between USD 20 Billion and USD 65 Billion. For the United States, AIR’s estimated industry insured losses resulting from Hurricane Irma’s wind and storm surge range from USD 15 billion to USD 50 billion. Note that these estimates are based on the NHC’s Saturday, September 9, 5:00 a.m. EDT forecast advisory for Irma. For selected islands in the Caribbean, AIR’s estimated industry insured losses resulting from Hurricane Irma’s wind and precipitation-induced flooding range from USD 5 billion to USD 15 billion.
editor Sep 10th, 20172:37 PM

It’s much quieter than usual for a Sunday of the conference. Many underwriters seem to have decided to stay at their desks – particularly those coming from Bermuda.

Posted: Monday, September 11th, 2017