Risk

2017 Hurricane season live blog

Posted by on

As the 2017 hurricane season continues to threaten more damage to the eastern United States, the Caribbean and elsewhere, Dr Tim Hall, Dr Richard Dixon and the InsuranceLinked editorial team will continue to follow developments on this live blog. It takes over from...

Some 2017 Hurricane Odds

Posted by on

This season has been eventful, to say the least. Even though we’re still reeling from Harvey and Irma, and we’re nowhere close to assessing the damage, it’s interesting to step back and estimate the probabilities for some of 2017’s striking features. I’ve analyzed 100,000s...

2017 Hurricane season live blog – Harvey, Irma…

Posted by on

FROM SEPTEMBER 10 2017 WE WILL BE FOLLOWING HURRICANES HARVEY AND IRMA IN THE MONTE CARLO 2017 LIVE BLOG     The 12-year-long US ‘major hurricane’ drought is over with the Texas Category 4 landfall of Hurricane Harvey. Hurricane Irma may become the second landfall in as many weeks. ‘Major hurricanes’ are category 3 and higher. […]

Risk of Florida hurricanes is 29% above average

Posted by on

It is now late enough in the year to get good readings on the two meteorological conditions that are known to correlate with hurricane activity. NASA's Tim Hall has run his model to predict a 29% higher frequency of hurricanes in Florida when compared to the long term...

Known unknowns

Posted by on

What premium should the owners of the Empire State Building pay for terrorism insurance in 2017? Insurers and reinsurers often need to quantify the risk of events occurring where there is no relevant data to analyse or where the risk changes continuously. Standard...

Hurricane Matthew (and Nicole) – Live Blog

Posted by on

InsuranceLinked and NASA's Tim Hall are following the latest developments of Hurricane Matthew. Over the next few days, we will be posting on the latest meteorological forecasts and the likely market impact. ...

What comes next? Mid Season Hurricane Update

Posted by on

NASA’s Dr Tim Hall gives his prognosis for the rest of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season and asks whether the frequency of hurricanes at the end of the season is affected by how things started. Hurricane Hermine made landfall on the Big Bend region of Florida...

Under pressure – MultiCat Mexico C

Posted by on

When the National Hurricane Center publishes its 2015 end of season report, the contents will be more than academic for ILS investors. The $100m MultiCat Mexico C could face a total default based on the published central pressure measurements of October's Hurricane...

2015 hurricane update with NASA’s Dr Tim Hall

Posted by on

As the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes builds to a peak on September 10, forecasts for the remainder of the year become increasingly skilful. InsuranceLinked's resident meteorologist has used the latest observations to calculate that 2015 should experience 43% fewer...

2015 could be another quiet year for hurricanes

Posted by on

In the two years 2004/2005 the US experienced seven 'major' hurricanes. There have been zero in the nine years since then. Early signs indicate that 2015 will be another relatively quiet year. NASA’s Dr. Tim Hall discusses the upcoming hurricane season and uses his...