Risk

Known unknowns

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What premium should the owners of the Empire State Building pay for terrorism insurance in 2017? Insurers and reinsurers often need to quantify the risk of events occurring where there is no relevant data to analyse or where the risk changes continuously. Standard...

Hurricane Matthew (and Nicole) – Live Blog

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InsuranceLinked and NASA's Tim Hall are following the latest developments of Hurricane Matthew. Over the next few days, we will be posting on the latest meteorological forecasts and the likely market impact. ...

What comes next? Mid Season Hurricane Update

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NASA’s Dr Tim Hall gives his prognosis for the rest of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season and asks whether the frequency of hurricanes at the end of the season is affected by how things started. Hurricane Hermine made landfall on the Big Bend region of Florida...

Under pressure – MultiCat Mexico C

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When the National Hurricane Center publishes its 2015 end of season report, the contents will be more than academic for ILS investors. The $100m MultiCat Mexico C could face a total default based on the published central pressure measurements of October's Hurricane...

2015 hurricane update with NASA’s Dr Tim Hall

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As the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes builds to a peak on September 10, forecasts for the remainder of the year become increasingly skilful. InsuranceLinked's resident meteorologist has used the latest observations to calculate that 2015 should experience 43% fewer...

2015 could be another quiet year for hurricanes

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In the two years 2004/2005 the US experienced seven 'major' hurricanes. There have been zero in the nine years since then. Early signs indicate that 2015 will be another relatively quiet year. NASA’s Dr. Tim Hall discusses the upcoming hurricane season and uses his...

Too many terrorists spoil the plot

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As spies have become more sophisticated, terrorists have had to find new ways to terrorise people. The public has been surprised to discover the extent to which they are spied on by their own governments. But according to Dr Gordon Woo at RMS - mass surveillance...

The fundamental interconnectedness of things

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On Saturday, global leaders flew home from the World Economic Forum at Davos where they were debating the big issues of 2015. The increasing interconnectedness of global risks was high on their agenda The graphic below shows the results of a survey into the...

A tale of two storms

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Bermuda was hammered by two tropical cyclones in less than a week, Fay and Gonzalo. But hitting Bermuda was one of the few things the storms had in common. Fay was a “messy” storm: gusty, broad, asymmetric, and not well forecast. Although official NHC sustained...

Bermuda – in the firing line (NASA’s Dr Tim Hall)

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Bermuda is a small target, but Atlantic hurricanes like to take shots at it, and Hurricane Gonzalo has good aim. Updated midday, October 15th 2014 Gonzalo, the sixth hurricane of the 2014 season, is currently a major hurricane (Saffir Simpson category 4) with...